The Only Option: Why the West Must Facilitate the Restoration of Iran’s Shah

Introduction: From Geopolitical Shock to Institutional Logic Analysis

Since Israel’s Operation “Rising Lion” air strike on Tehran on June 13, 2025, the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape has been profoundly reshaped. As I analyzed in my previous article “The Return of the Crown: The End of Iran’s Theocracy,” published immediately after the strike, this military action carries profound strategic intent—to end Iran’s 46-year policy of “revolutionary export” and promote the replacement of theocratic republicanism with secular monarchy.

However, military strikes merely initiate change; they don’t complete the transformation. The truly critical question is this: faced with Iran’s exceptionally stable “philosopher king” theocratic regime, what alternative arrangement can both maintain political stability and eliminate the possibility of religious extremist restoration?

This article will delve into a core proposition not fully explored in my previous piece: why the restoration of the Pahlavi dynasty is not only the sole viable alternative but also the most logical path for ensuring stability in the Middle East and the broader Islamic world, thereby restoring geopolitical order.

This isn’t a technical discussion about regime change. Instead, it’s a deep analysis of institutional logic: when a highly integrated theocratic system faces transformation, only a secular monarchy with equivalent historical legitimacy and institutional stability can achieve a smooth transition and prevent the resurgence of religious forces.

I. The Uniqueness of the Alternative: Why Only Monarchy?

1.1 The Core Problems of Iran’s Current System

Iran’s Political System in Essence: A “Philosopher-King” Theocratic Republic

Iran’s current political system isn’t a pure theocracy; it’s a hybrid combining theocratic and democratic mechanisms:

• Possesses a complete elected government structure (president, parliament, cabinet).
• Exhibits all the surface features and operational aspects of democratic institutions.
• Crucially, the Supreme Leader system functions as a “philosopher-king” style transcendent authority, wielding ultimate decision-making power.

The stability of this system lies precisely in its successful combination of:

• The legitimacy foundation and social absorption capacity of democratic institutions.
• The decision-making efficiency and strategic continuity of centralized systems.
• The spiritual appeal and cultural identity derived from religious authority.

1.2 Why a Non-Monarchical People’s Republic Cannot Serve as a Viable Alternative

Structural Dilemmas: The Case Against a Non-Monarchical Republic in Iran:

1. Inability to Resist Theocratic Restoration

• Religious forces could easily regain political dominance through elections.
• Such a system would lack the transcendent authority needed to counterbalance religious influence.
• Iran’s deep religious culture provides fertile ground for theocratic restoration.

2. The Danger of a Power Vacuum

• After abolishing the Supreme Leader, who would exercise ultimate arbitration power?
• A presidential system could easily lead to excessive power concentration.
• A parliamentary system would likely be prone to deadlock in a pluralistic society.

3. Lessons from Historical Experience

• Democratic experiments in the early 1979 revolution were swiftly overtaken by theocracy.
• The widespread failure of democratization efforts across the Middle East (exemplified by the chaos in Iraq) serves as a stark warning.

1.3 The Unique Alternative Value of Monarchy

Why Only a Monarch Can Replace the Supreme Leader?

1. Equivalent Authority

• Monarchs, like Supreme Leaders, possess a symbolic status that transcends factional divides.
• They hold historical legitimacy to exercise ultimate arbitration power.
• They can provide a stable source of authority during political crises.

2. Institutional Compatibility

• Monarchy can fully maintain existing democratic institutions without fundamental alteration.
• It simply replaces the theocratic core (Supreme Leader) with a secular authority (monarch).
• The president, parliament, and judicial system can retain their original operational modes.

3. Cultural Compatibility

• Monarchy is highly compatible with Iran’s 2,500-year historical tradition.
• It satisfies the public’s psychological needs for authority and order.
• It provides cultural resources to inherently resist religious extremism.

II. The Necessity of Restoration: The Strategic Logic of Institutional Transition

2.1 The Institutional Advantages of the “Philosopher King” Model Must Be Retained

Why Simple Western Democracy Won’t Work:

The core advantage of Iran’s existing system lies in its “philosopher king” style concentration of authority:

• It avoids the policy short-sightedness and partisan conflict common in Western democracies.
• It provides an institutional guarantee for long-term strategic planning.
• It ensures the unity and effectiveness of the national will.

The Importance of These Advantages in the Regional Environment:

• Facing a complex geopolitical environment demands strategic resolve.
• A multi-ethnic nation requires a transcendent authority to maintain unity.
• Economic development necessitates the continuity of long-term policies.

2.2 Strategic Replacement: A Secular Monarch for a Theocratic Leader

Precise Institutional Transition:

This isn’t about institutional reconstruction, but a precise replacement of the authority core:

• Maintain Systemic Framework: Presidential elections, parliamentary politics, and the judicial system would be completely retained.
• Replace Authority Source: The source of authority would shift from religious theocracy to secular monarchy.
• Preserve Power Structure: The monarch would hold a constitutional status akin to the Supreme Leader’s, but grounded in secular legitimacy.

The Institutional Logic of This Replacement:

• It avoids the chaos and uncertainty often associated with political transitions.
• It maintains familiar political operational modes for the public.
• It facilitates a smooth transition from theocracy to secularism.

2.3 Institutional Immunity Against Theocratic Restoration

Monarchy: An Inherent Antidote to Theocracy

• Symbolic Competition: Secular monarchy fundamentally opposes religious theocracy on a symbolic level.
• Exclusion from Power Structure: The monarch’s existence inherently negates the political dominance of religious leaders.
• Cultural Narrative Confrontation: The deep-rooted Persian monarchical tradition directly confronts the Islamic revolutionary narrative.
• Institutional Guarantee: The monarch, as a national symbol, naturally excludes the politicization of religious authority.

Comparing the Fragility of Other Alternatives:

• People’s Republic: Religious forces could potentially seize power through elections.
• Military Government: Lacks the cultural resources to effectively counter religious legitimacy.
• Federal Republic: May still inadvertently provide local strongholds for religious forces.

III. The Strategic Window of Geopolitical Opportunity

3.1 Favorable Factors in the International Environment

Strategic Opportunities in Great Power Competition:

The 2025 geopolitical landscape offers a rare strategic window for Iran’s political transformation:

• US Middle East Strategic Adjustment: Following Trump’s major diplomatic breakthroughs in the Middle East, he publicly shifted US foreign policy from ideological export to prioritizing regional peace.
• Russia’s Pragmatic Considerations: Putin’s actions in Ukraine have gained Trump’s understanding and acquiescence, making Russian interference in Trump’s Iran policy improbable. Furthermore, a monarchical restoration in Iran could present a pragmatic path appealing to Russian traditionalists, a prospect Putin might welcome.
• Collapse of Syria’s Assad Regime: Iran has lost a pillar-level ally in the Middle East, becoming unprecedentedly isolated.

3.2 Strategic Support from Regional Allies

Institutional Affinity Among Islamic World Monarchies:

Secular monarchical states in the Islamic world would be natural supporters of Iran’s monarchical restoration:

• Saudi Arabia: As the regional monarchical leader, it supports institutionally similar systems.
• UAE: An economically developed monarchy that can provide valuable transition experience.
• Jordan: A historically established monarchy with institutional demonstration value.
• Morocco: A successful practitioner of constitutional monarchy.

Strategic Value of Institutional Coordination:

• Forming a regional monarchical alliance against religious extremism to stabilize the Islamic world.
• Establishing robust regional security cooperation mechanisms.
• Promoting the overall stabilization of the Middle East region.

3.3 Maturity of Internal Conditions

Realistic Social Foundation:

• Secularization Demands: Deep social changes revealed by the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement.
• Economic Hardship: Livelihood problems exacerbated by sanctions and mismanagement.
• Youth Generation: Widespread dissatisfaction with the current system and a strong desire for change.
• Elite Fragmentation: Divisions of interest within the Revolutionary Guard and conservative factions.

IV. Realistic Design of the Transition Path

4.1 Simple Model of Institutional Transition

The Principle of Minimal Change:

The core of this political transition lies in authority replacement, not institutional reconstruction:

• Constitutional Amendment: Modifying clauses related to the Supreme Leader to reflect a monarchical system.
• Power Transfer: Reza Pahlavi’s acceptance of authority.
• Government Continuity: The existing elected government would continue its operation.
• Legal Framework: The existing legal system would essentially remain unchanged.

4.2 Stable Arrangements for the Transition Period

Avoiding a Power Vacuum:

• Temporary Regency: Establishing a regency council before formal coronation.
• Military Neutrality: Ensuring armed forces remain neutral during transition; the Revolutionary Guard could be reorganized as a Royal Guard and reintegrated into the national military structure.
• International Supervision: Inviting international organizations to monitor the transition process.
• Social Stability: Maintaining basic social services and economic operations.

Conclusion: History’s Call and Institutional Evolution

Iran faces not an institutional revolution, but an institutional evolution. The transition from a theocratic republic to a constitutional monarchy represents a precise institutional adjustment, not fundamental political reconstruction.

The Pahlavi dynasty’s restoration embodies the return of institutional rationality:

• Maintaining Institutional Advantages: Preserving the strategic value of the “philosopher king” model.
• Eliminating Theocratic Drawbacks: Eradicating the ideological drive of “revolutionary export.”
• Achieving Secular Transition: Ensuring religious forces cannot regain power.
• Reintegrating into the International System: Returning to its role as a responsible regional power.

This is not mere restoration, but institutional modernization; not revolution, but the secularization of authority.

By maintaining the basic framework of existing political institutions and replacing the Supreme Leader with a monarch, Iran can achieve a smooth transition from theocracy to secularism. This approach ensures both institutional stability and continuity while effectively eliminating the possibility of religious extremist restoration.

Reza Pahlavi needs not absolute power, but institutional authority—that crown capable of bearing historical tradition, maintaining national unity, and resisting religious restoration: the secular crown.

This would provide a positive transformation model for the current global chaos and governance crisis.

This article is the second in a series, based on in-depth analysis of the current Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape. The success of any political transformation requires the active choice of the Iranian people and prudent support from the international community.

About The Author

Churchill Hunn

I am an independent political thinker and commentator, focusing on institutional analysis, conservative philosophy, and the underlying mechanisms of civilizational decline. My writing is grounded in an inquiry into the origins of liberty, a reflection on traditional values, and a long-term observation of the tension between personal conscience and authoritative order.
In an age driven by emotion and manipulated by discourse, I choose to return to reason and history in search of the foundations of thought. I believe the fate of civilization depends on a renewed recognition of truth, responsibility, and honor.
I founded Cospecto.com as a platform for critical thought, with a focus on international politics, Chinese history, and moral philosophy—a space where thought is still allowed to breathe.
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