In response to China’s counter-tariffs, the Trump administration launched a new round of tariffs on Chinese goods on April 9, with the rate against China soaring to 145%. In my previous analysis, I argued that Trump’s tariffs aimed more at domestic political consolidation and reshaping the postwar order than targeting China specifically. Yet, as some nations begin to yield to Trump’s pressure, it’s clear his reordering of the global system is already bearing fruit. This round of tariffs, solely aimed at China, has obviously outstripped the earlier context, warranting a fresh examination.
To cut to the chase, I believe this move signals:
- First, this is no mere bargaining chip for negotiations—it’s an ultimatum. If China doesn’t back down immediately, Trump will abandon any notion of cooperative integration and pivot to structural confrontation.
- Second, this structural confrontation seeks to strip China of its role in global supply chains, squeezing its room to maneuver until the world’s factory fades into history.
In truth, China’s rise over the past three decades has hinged on the “cheap Chinese labor” model—a veneer of “diligence and efficiency” masking low wages, minimal labor rights, lax environmental standards, and opaque information flows. This model funneled the sweat of two generations of Chinese workers into the wealth of global elites. Once severed, it will trigger a precipitous collapse of the CCP’s economic foundation.
Economic Lifeline in Peril
China’s industrial engine doesn’t just rely on exports—it depends on a trinity of Western support: market demand, technology licensing, and financial backing. Trump’s policies are systematically slashing these lifelines.
To counter this crisis, the CCP will first seek diplomatic breakthroughs to buy breathing room. It will negotiate with Europe, trying to sway Germany and France against U.S. unilateralism; deepen ties with Russia to secure its rear; and court Southeast Asian nations to stabilize regional markets. Yet these efforts face steep hurdles: Europe grows increasingly wary, Russia and the U.S. may thaw relations with a Ukraine ceasefire, and Southeast Asia remains noncommittal. Most nations, constrained by U.S. tariffs, can hardly align with the CCP. If diplomacy fails, China’s strategic space will be compressed to a breaking point.
Once these realities crystallize, China can no longer rely on “delay tactics” to bide time. In the WTO era, the CCP mastered a playbook of “talks, stalling, and concessions” to navigate the WTO’s bureaucratic maze, often shortchanging its promises. But Trump’s blunt, chokehold strategy has rendered this approach obsolete.
More critically, this decoupling doesn’t just target China’s direct exports to the U.S.—it encompasses all goods rerouted through third countries. This is a comprehensive “encircle-and-lock” sanction structure, forcing the CCP into a corner: either accept a death spiral of decline or roll the dice on a desperate gamble.
A Last-Ditch Throw of the Dice
When diplomatic breakthroughs prove elusive, economic collapse will erode the CCP’s legitimacy, and internal reforms will be too slow to stem the tide. Military action becomes the final resort. If the CCP delays, cascading crises—overcapacity, mass unemployment, raw material shortages, and capital flight—will plunge China into systemic meltdown. On one hand, its war-making capacity will wane as production dwindles; on the other, the legitimacy derived from growth will be uprooted entirely.
At this juncture, military action emerges as the last card to play:
- Deflect domestic pressure by redirecting industrial capacity to war efforts, easing the strain of collapse.
- Freeze international pressure through localized conflicts, forcing negotiations.
- Disrupt the rhythm of America’s alliance system, testing its resolve.
On the surface, this may seem like a stopgap to “stave off defeat through war,” but it also aligns with the CCP’s deeper designs. For years, the CCP has bided its time under the guise of “keeping a low profile,” waiting for a chance to reshape the geopolitical chessboard. Now, cornered by economic and diplomatic straits, it flips its last gambit early, going all-in.
Flashpoint in the Western Pacific
Here lies the crux. The Western Pacific, with its geopolitical sensitivity, is the CCP’s stage of choice for military action. Adept at “limited conflict” and “gray-zone” tactics, the CCP is unlikely to engage U.S. forces head-on, instead favoring these approaches:
- “Military containment” around Taiwan—its strategic inevitability demands it. By blockading Taiwan without invading or landing, the CCP can pin down U.S. forces, setting the stage for a “besiege-and-counter” tactic.
- “Counter-intervention” in the South China Sea—its geographic centrality makes it ideal. By leveraging disputes with the Philippines, the CCP can both test the resolve of the U.S.-Philippines alliance and stir tensions in South China Sea waterways to unsettle Japan and South Korea, rattling the first island chain and thwarting the Indo-Pacific strategy.
Epilogue: A Reckoning at the Precipice
Trump’s tariff sledgehammer has shattered China’s economic last gambit, and diplomatic failures have left the CCP in unprecedented isolation. The Western Pacific swirls with winds of turmoil, its currents unpredictable. The final outcome is far from ordained—be it compromise, stalemate, or fiercer confrontation, the next act of the global order awaits Lady Fate’s decree.
