On May 7, 2025, the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir erupted in the fiercest fighting in decades. Public reports indicate India launched “Operation Sindoor,” hitting nine “terrorist infrastructure” targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, including Muzaffarabad, Kotli, and Muridke in Punjab province, killing at least eight and injuring 35. The spark was a terrorist attack on April 22 in India-controlled Pahalgam, which left 26 tourists dead. India blamed Pakistan for backing terrorism, a charge Islamabad rejected. Pakistan claimed it downed five Indian jets and promised retaliation, triggering artillery duels and firefights along the LoC. Mosques and civilian buildings in Muzaffarabad took hits, pushing tensions to their highest since 2019. UN Secretary-General António Guterres voiced “deep concern” and urged calm, while the U.S. State Department said it’s “closely watching.” On the surface, this looks like another chapter in the India-Pakistan feud, but with Trump back in the White House, the Russia-Ukraine war stalled, and global supply chains shifting, it’s part of a bigger geopolitical chess game. This isn’t just a local flare-up—it’s a proxy conflict engineered by China, driven by three core goals:
1. Blocking a U.S.-Russia Thaw
Trump’s return has put U.S.-Russia relations at a crossroads. He’s fed up with the Ukraine war, pushing for a quick ceasefire and even floating the idea of teaming up with Russia to counter China. This “team up with Russia to counter China” vibe has Beijing on edge.
Against this backdrop, the India-Pakistan clash plays right into China’s hands:
- It forces Russia to pick a side between India and China: Russia and India go way back, but China uses the conflict to push Moscow into pausing arms deals with New Delhi, limiting Russia’s wiggle room;
- It sows distrust between Russia and India: If Russia stays neutral, India gets annoyed; if it tilts toward China, it risks losing India, making a U.S.-Russia deal tougher;
- It cements the “China-Russia alliance” image: By posing as Russia’s key ally, China drowns out U.S. voices calling for a Russia pivot.
Bottom line: this conflict is China’s move to tie Russia down through a side skirmish—a slick “flank check.”
2. Slowing Washington’s Indo-Pacific Push
Trump’s team has gone all-in on “great power competition” with China, doubling down on reinforcing the Indo-Pacific, especially around Taiwan and the First Island Chain. But an India-Pakistan conflict throws a wrench in those plans:
- India’s a major U.S. partner, aligning on tariffs and supply chains in the trade war with China—Washington can’t just sit this one out;
- Propping up India pulls U.S. diplomatic and military resources, sapping focus and assets meant for the Indo-Pacific;
- It forces the U.S. to rejigger its Indo-Pacific strategy, dialing back momentum in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.
For Beijing, this is classic “sideline disruption”: instead of facing off in the Taiwan Strait, China stretches U.S. bandwidth at the India-Pakistan fault line, bogging down its East Asia focus.
3. Knocking India’s Credibility as a China Alternative
With “de-Sinicization” and U.S.-China economic decoupling in full swing, India’s a top contender to take over China’s supply chain role. Giants like Apple, Amazon, and TSMC are pouring money into India, and Washington sees it as a “trusted manufacturing hub.”
But the India-Pakistan conflict hits this trend hard:
- It spikes geopolitical risks: Investors start questioning if India can keep things stable;
- It exposes infrastructure and energy weaknesses: War brings risks of internet blackouts, supply shortages, and security headaches;
- It spooks global capital: The more unstable things look, the longer investors hold off.
China doesn’t need to fight market forces head-on—by stirring up chaos, it dents India’s appeal in the global supply chain race.
U.S. Counterplay: Tapping India-Russia Ties
The U.S. has cards to play. By leaning on the strong military and energy ties between India and Russia—2024 trade topped $60 billion—Washington could use the conflict to rally support for India, pulling Russia closer and tightening an Indo-Pacific noose around China. One move could be cutting Ukraine aid or brokering a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire to nudge Russia toward backing India or staying neutral. But the price is steep: ditching Ukraine would crack NATO unity, tick off Poland and the Baltic states, and give China a shot at deeper Europe ties. Plus, with Russia leaning heavily on China’s economic lifeline—2024 trade hit $240 billion—the U.S. would need a knockout offer to shift Moscow’s stance.
Conclusion: A Regional Spark, a Global Board, a Master Play
The India-Pakistan conflict is just a piece in China’s bigger geopolitical puzzle, not about propping up Pakistan or taking on India’s military but about:
- Keeping Russia locked in China’s corner, blocking Trump’s outreach;
- Slowing the U.S. Indo-Pacific pivot, scattering its focus;
- Tarnishing India’s image as a global supply chain player.
At its heart, this is a master play. Whatever the U.S. does, China comes out ahead: cozying up to Russia means abandoning Ukraine, weakening NATO and opening doors for China-Europe deals; doubling down on India drains Indo-Pacific resources; if the conflict spirals, China can tighten its hold on Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, boxing in India. But it’s not airtight—escalation could derail CPEC projects with security risks, weighing China down, while India might fast-track military ties with the U.S., Japan, and Australia, isolating China and possibly heating up Sino-Indian border disputes.
This war is a cheap, high-impact jab in enemy territory—a bold move in China’s defensive game plan. If the U.S. can use India-Russia ties to fight back, it might upend China’s strategy, but the costs would be huge. Whether the world sees the real stakes of this proxy war will shape Asia and global geopolitics for the next five years.
